Jason Esteves for Governor?
A rising GA Democrat is being rumored to run for the state's top spot in 2026
Welcome to The Breakdown by King Williams, a newsletter covering Atlanta's hidden connections to everything else. I am a documentary filmmaker, journalist, and podcast host based in Atlanta, Georgia.
Rising Georgia Democrat Jason Esteves is rumored to be running for Governor.
Georgia State Senator Jason Esteves (SD-35) is rumored to be running for the Democratic spot for governor of Georgia in 2026. Esteves, a rising star within the state Democratic Party, could signal that the party is moving on from the dismal 2022 and 2024 outings with a focus on the present.
Esteves could be the very future of the party statewide and nationally, which would be the win both Democratic organizations need. Should Esteves decide to run, he would join an increasingly crowded field of Democrats, including former Atlanta mayor Keshia Lance Bottoms, recently departed DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and presumed frontrunner for the nomination, Congresswoman Lucy McBath.
The cases for and against Jason Esteves
The case for Jason Esteves
Jason Esteves is (one of) the rising stars of the Democratic Party of Georgia. A future that understands the politics, posturing, and policies that could win. Esteves, a millennial Afro-Latino male with a JD and time spent as a public school teacher, is the type of box-checking that keeps certain political narratives at bay. His stances on abortion, education, immigration, and not being caught in the current era of conservative culture wars are a breath of fresh air for the party.
Over the last twelve years, Esteves has gone from two-time Atlanta School Board to now two-time State Senator. In that time, Esteves has been seen more prominently at state-level events, including numerous stops during the Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign. Over the last few legislative sessions, he has become a fixture at the state capitol.
Esteves has been positioning himself on the margins for a while. Should an actual campaign exist, it would be a much smoother step forward than other rumored candidates. Esteves doesn’t come with the baggage of KLB; he doesn’t come with the built-in bias of being a DeKalb County politician like Mike Thurmond, and his current positioning as State Senator is not at the degree of severity of losing a potential national figure like Lucy McBath.
The case against Jason Esteves
Esteves’s biggest flaw is that he is the least known candidate of the four currently presumed Democratic nominees for governor of Georgia. Esteves would also have a more significant challenge in raising his profile among traditional, rank-and-file donors, many of whom have been decimated over the last few years with donations and disappointment. His likely challengers, McBath, Bottoms, and Thurmond, would potentially take up a substantial amount of the local + regional donor pool early, likely having to find a new set of donors to make a dent.
Additionally, Esteves would need to start building his media and candidate profile within Metro Atlanta, the Black Belt, and the more rural parts of Georgia if he wants to have a real shot at winning his party nomination and challenging Republicans in November 2026. Esteves would need to proceed regardless of whether he has the support of the state Democratic Party.
The state Democratic Party isn’t much help for now.
The Republicans are so far ahead that no matter what Democrat lines up against them, they have the local political infrastructure to make an easy victory. Esteves would have to find a way to galvanize voters with or without a state party infrastructure that still can’t find a new leader and has been seen as mostly MIA when making any stances against the Republicans locally or nationally.
It’s not impossible, but if the state party would get its shit together and start figuring out now its 2026 strategy, one that doesn’t cannibalize itself from within or alienate itself from the left, are crucial steps to returning to viability. In addition to DPG figuring out its new ecosystem internally and externally, an ecosystem it must figure out by the end of this legislative session, not in December.
From my previous newsletter: Are The Georgia Dems Beefing?
5. The GA Dems don’t have the supportive infrastructure or political ecosystems to win.
Georgia Democrats once again will have to figure out how to develop a cohesive non-election cycle-dependent ecosystem. One that’s fully funded and allows for people from non-traditional/insider backgrounds to find a way within the party. Despite raining millions every cycle, most funding is spent on GOTV, media, and events, leaving local orgs dry outside election season.
This is problematic since so much of the Democratic base is volunteer-dependent, with no way to retain people after election cycles, causing a retread of manpower each cycle. The future of the Georgia Democratic Party will have to have a more substantial base of supportive organizations, a consistent flow of funds, and an allowance for those who show aptitude to be retained in the currently non-existent liberal political ecosystem.
If they (DPG) were to rally around an inter-party rising star candidate like Esteves, it would be a step toward becoming the future signal. That signal is that it’s moving on from the lingering gerontocracy and political thinking of the last twenty years or so. Less working 20-30 years before running for office but emerging as an overall less enthusiastic candidate that only brings out steadfast senior voters and little for anyone else. The Democrats must be younger and more forthcoming with candidates who excite the next generation of voters.
Reconsidering Lucy McBath for Governor
Many insiders consider current US Congresswoman Lucy McBath as the forerunner to challenge for Governor. McBath is the most well-financed, resourced, known, and respected candidate among the potential Democratic nominees for governor.
Still, it may not be the best use of McBath or her current positioning or political capital. McBath has been rumored since 2024, but some points could dissuade her. If Esteves is serious, his biggest challenger is McBath. If the Democratic Party of Georgia is serious, they would avoid a bump between one of their current figureheads and a rising star.
First, McBath, since her improbable run in 2018, has emerged as a national political figure with a long-term, semi-safe congresswoman in one of the more improbable districts. In two terms, McBath has made her northern metro Atlanta suburban district of Cobb-Gwinnett a semi-safe Democratic seat, one of the few for the party in Georgia. As a result of partisan gerrymandering by Republicans, McBath has been relocated into a western district that includes more of Cobb and Fulton.
The western metro Atlanta corridor that McBath currently represents is one of the state's most racially and economically diverse parts, lending to one of the few bright spots within the state democratic party.
Second, that stability comes when Democrats in Georgia need it the most. The Democrats started the 2020s on a high note. Georgia went blue, and Biden won, becoming the first Democrat since Clinton to win in the state. Then, the party finally saw an actual increase in national political representation by winning in 2020, seeing the party go from 5 to 6 US House members in 2020, the most in the modern era (2000-present, post-complete party switch) since 2004.
But they could again be down to just four US House reps operating within a super gerrymandered 10R-4D US House majority in a couple of years without a stern defense of McBath’s seat + a defense of District 2 in southwest Georgia, which has been looking shaky in the last few elections.
This is due to heavy Republican gerrymandering in 2021. The political representation of Georgia in the US House is currently 9 Republican-5 Democrat when it should be 7D-7R based on overall population, registered voters, and turnout.
After nearly a decade between 10R-4D and 9R-5D, 2020, in part by gerrymandering with more conservative districts in northern Georgia and the Savannah corridor, robbing the primarily Democrat and then-majority black districts be diluted in the 2010s gerrymandering.
Despite this, the Dems finally won in the heavily gerrymandered northern metro Atlanta suburbs. By 2022, Republicans got their lick back and did what neo-segregationists do: dilute power.
Third, McBath’s win in the state's most diverse district came at a considerable cost. It makes no sense to flirt with losing that seat without some certainty. Her current district of western metro Atlanta is safe but it comes with changing demographics, one that is seeing a poorer set of voters emerge in the non-city limits and is older. As well as a richer, younger class emerging within the city and I-285 proper, one who will have different needs.
Fourth, if McBath decides not to seek re-election and run for governor, there’s no firm grip on who the person in the pipeline is to fill that seat, which could lead to long-term instability.
From my previous newsletter: Are The Georgia Dems Beefing?
Who’s on the bench?
Currently, the question of who’s next in line for all the positions is significant. The Democrats face a question of who’s in the leadership pipeline to maintain currently held statewide seats in addition to who’s being groomed for leadership within the party. Unlike their Republican counterparts, the Democrats face turnover after each and every election. And when there is consistency is often held for too long, resulting in a leadership vacuum that’s arguably a generation behind.
Who’s replacing the current US Dem Congress Seats?
The Democrats have another issue: succession. The Georgia Democrats haven’t successfully planned for its successors, developed a leadership pipeline, forged key partnerships, or planted younger people in positions for long-term success like the Republicans have.
The leadership of elected Democrats is old. Except for John Ossoff, 37, a millennial, and Nikema Williams, 46, a younger GenXer, most of the leadership at the county, city, and key statewide positions are from people older than both. The five Democrats in the US Congress are all older than 50 and, in some cases, 70. Georgia’s other US Senator, Warnock, is also in his 50s—similar ages for several Democratic county commissioners and officers.
Having McBath could be a better hedge at maintaining national power and potential swing back in 2026 for the Dems currently at 215D to 220R in the US House. It would behoove Democrats to have some base in the bag as they try to take the House back in 2026, which would be a start, considering the US Senate is likely unwinnable next year. But should she step down as a run for governor, there’s no assurances that her current-day ‘safe’ seat will be held. If there were to be a successor that seat, some millennial, or Gen Z lib should be ready to take over. As well as have a younger cadre of county and city level elected officials ready to move as a more cohesive political unit.
The Big Picture
In 2024, Democrat causals stayed home; younger black men swung slightly right; religious groups went again for Trump; the varying Leftist coalitions stayed away from Biden-Harris primarily over Israel’s role in Gaza, while Latino males reversed two decades of pivoting to the left to move to the right. As well as, those individuals who didn’t want to vote for Trump or the Dems stayed away, in part because culture wars and wedge issues defined the Democrats, not the Republicans. Meanwhile, the malaise of those steadfast voters still haunts the party.
Centering on Esteves and all he represents could be a blueprint for how to win back elections nationally in the face of a looming Trump presidency.
Should the Dems nominee for governor be Jason Esteves, he would be the first male challenger in a decade since the unsuccessful run of Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, in 2014. In that decade’s run, Georgia politics changed quite a few times. We’ve seen the rise and political fall of Stacey Abrams, the dismantling and public humiliation of the machine that brought her close to the governor’s mansion.
We’ve seen Georgia surprise everyone by producing the first win for a Democrat for President in the state since Bill Clinton’s 1992 run. We’ve seen Georgia elect, then re-elect its first Black US Senator and its first Jewish Senator, who’s seeking reelection himself in 2026.
Jason Esteves could be the guy, but only time will tell
-KJW