Let's Talk Early Voting Totals
What the numbers do and don’t say
Welcome to my newsletter, King Williams. I am a documentary filmmaker, journalist, podcast host, and author in Atlanta, Georgia. This newsletter covers Atlanta's hidden connections and everything else.
*This article was written with the most up-to-date totals from the Georgia Secretary of State’s website, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and GeorgiaVotes. These numbers will be continually changing throughout the week.
*The data analyzed for this article is for the end of voting on October 21st, 2024
Georgia Sets Voting Records
Georgia is off to a fantastic start to the 2024 presidential election. Over the first seven days of the early voting period, 1,929,628 million people have voted. Of that total, 1,814,223 million have voted in person, with another 116,000 via absentee ballots and another roughly ~207,000 ballots issued but not yet returned.
This began with last Tuesday’s surprising haul of over 300,000+ people voting on opening day; it continued with over 250,000+ people voting each weekday, setting record first-week totals, including Saturday and Sunday. In the first seven days, roughly 23.5% of all eligible voters in Georgia have participated in the 2024 presidential election. Now, after eight days, 26.8% of all eligible voters have voted in Georgia.
This began with last Tuesday’s surprising haul of over 300,000+ people voting on opening day; it continued with over 250,000+ people voting each weekday, setting record first-week totals, including Saturday and Sunday. In the first seven days, roughly 23.5% of all eligible voters in Georgia have participated in the 2024 presidential election. Now, after eight days, 26.8% of all eligible voters have voted in Georgia.
For an election that’s been more challenging to read, the early voting numbers show some interesting signs for both parties. Early voting totals have both sides claiming success but also eliciting caution. Despite the huge first-week numbers, they must be weighed cautiously.
What the numbers do and don’t say
However, upon further analysis, the numbers, while good, are still a bit lower than in 2020. Now that the eight days have passed, some trends are emerging. Week two of early voting is starting to show whether or not both parties are in trouble.
Week 2
It could be argued that the first week’s totals are from high-propensity voters of both parties. The numbers currently support an older electorate flexing its power, as 69% of all voters are 50 years or older, with seniors (65+) commanding a whopping 40% of all voters. Women are ~55% of all voters, with men a distant second at ~44%.
Week two has kept most of the momentum, as another ~ 244,000 people voted in Georgia on Monday and ~219,000 on Tuesday, a ~10% day-over-day decline—a similar rate to last week but with a slightly smaller total of voters.
A tale of two turnouts
This is the first five-day week of early voting, and if the numbers hold, that gap could close. 2024 is running about 22% lower than 2020 compared to accepted ballots. Accepted ballots are a combination of in-person and absentee voting. Georgia is running 6% behind 2020 (as of 10/21) when factoring in just in-person voting.
However, that could be due to simple changes in the calendar, as 2020 started with a full five-day week versus 2024, which began with a four-day week. Also, 2020 had substantially more absentee voters than 2024, where a whopping 1.6 million people requested absentee ballots.
New voters, Day-Of and Non-voters
There is some hope, as 16.7% (272,000) of all voters did not vote in the 2020 election. Both parties should be concerned about youth turnout as those 18-29 are only 10.3%, and surprisingly, 30-39-year-olds are only at 9% currently.
On the other hand, Day-Of-Voters is showing signs that give hope to both parties, as 5.4% of voters who voted on Election Day in November 2020 have now voted in early voting. Additionally, 79.1% of 2024’s early voters also voted early in 2020—and surprisingly, 15.6% of 2024’s voters did not vote at all in 2020.
Other things to consider
This Monday’s early voting total was still on par with last week’s turnout. Still, the location of the votes shows a pattern of smaller, rural, and more conservative-supporting counties turning out in record numbers.
For both parties, but especially the Democrats, the youth vote is vital to contend with what is likely a large, older, conservative bloc of early voters.
While larger, more Democrat-supporting counties had slightly lower turnouts. If this trend holds, expect an overall turnout less than in 2020. In that election, over 5.2 million people voted.
What’s happening with Black voters?
Another trend is emerging: black voters aren’t showing up compared to 2020 levels. Black turnout is still lacking in the five core counties of metro Atlanta: Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinett, and Clayton. And across the black belt of southwest to southeast Georgia, numbers show a similar decline. If this election becomes close, the role of whether or not black voters show up could tip Georgia and possibly the US for Trump again.
-KJW