Warnock ran into a trap, Walker is 2016 Trump
The Warnock vs Walker debate recap + larger observations
Welcome to my freemium newsletter by me, King Williams. A documentary filmmaker, journalist, podcast host, and author based in Atlanta, Georgia. This is a newsletter covering the hidden connections of Atlanta to everything else. For my dad, stay strong! I love you!
1. Early voting starts tomorrow, October 17th
Early voting starts tomorrow, October 17th. You can find your options for early polling locations and times by visiting the Secretary of State’s website. You can also check your status by visiting the MyVoterPage.
2. The only debate between US Senator Rev. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker was held Friday
Yesterday was the likely only debate between current US Senator Raphael Warnock against Republican challenger Herschel Walker. Both men are running for US Senate, a six-year term that would in addition to voting on national laws also oversee the confirming a new slate of judges including Supreme Court replacements.
The debate has been an initiative several months in the making, as Warnock for weeks earlier this year attempted to have Walker agree to a series of debates, to which Walker declined before agreeing to this debate in Savannah, Warnock’s hometown.
A debate that had terms that Warnock’s team was not comfortable with but ultimately decided to participate in. Warnock has attempted to debate Walker in his own hometown of Macon, to which Walker declined. Walker in the lead-up to the debate had been given months of debate prep and policy briefings. Walker has also been meeting with several Republican stalwarts such as Ralph Reed and Newt Gingrich.
The GOP strategy is to not participate unless they can win
Warnock and Walker were supposed to have a debate in Macon Thursday, which was canceled as Walker’s team did not respond to requests for an additional debate that would’ve been today, October 16th, leaving only that only Warnock and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver to attend.
In prior years, the Georgia US Senate debates were a common political exercise until 2020. In that election, then-US Senator David Perdue faced off against challenger Jon Ossoff for the US Senate, where he didn’t show up for the final debate, Perdue decided to stop showing up to debates altogether. Perdue’s team correctly assessed that showing up for any debate would not benefit their candidate as Republican voters were already solidified in their position. It seems that Walker’s campaign did the same before finally agreeing to a debate that would be more advantageous for their campaign. They were correct in that assumption as Friday’s debate success has overshadowed the last two weeks of Walker’s negative coverage heading into Monday.
3. Walker’s strategy in debating Warnock in Savannah
The likely reason for the debate in Savannah was the opportunity to reframe the narrative around Walker’s campaign while creating a new media framing of Warnock—the plan succeeded. For the Walker campaign, continuing to allow his perception as a ‘dumb jock’ alongside his constant media gaffes to go unchecked has led to more general media and earned media coverage. The Dems should’ve seen this coming, even in the weeks leading up to the debate, CNN identified this would be a strategy.
Every error, controversy, and nonsensical rant has made Walker a 2015 Trump-like Trojan horse entering Friday’s debate. This constant coverage, followed by a consistent level of pro-conservative media punditry provided enough cover to surprise in the likely one and only debate before voters go into the polls on Monday.
3b. Walker’s low expectations were the way to victory
Walker won by aiming for low expectations and delivering a half-coherent speaker on-stage, which has led to a greater ROI of positive coverage for their candidate. The strategy worked immediately, during the debate, one of the AJC’s lead political commentators went short of praising Walker, and an NYT contributor did the same. Walker during his performance saw other conservative ideologues immediately praise openly along these same talking points as the AJC and NYT correspondent’s. Both the local and national media ecosystem has moved on from reporting on Walker’s previous polling numbers, his lack of support of Black voters, and questions among conservative voters. He won.
3c. Walker was treated like Trump in 2016, that was a mistake
Walker just needed to be average to ‘win’ this debate in the eyes of conservatives and most importantly, media pundits, who will do the rebuilding of the narrative of Walker three days before the start of early voting. History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme—an overqualified Dem is running against a celebrity candidate who the news media is treating with soft gloves and lowered expectations.
Like Trump in 2015/16, the more local/national media does not cover the genuine gaffes and oddities of the Walker campaign, the more mainstreaming of his candidacy grows. Walker has won the name battle over the man who had the second-highest vote total ever for any Democrat in the state. The Dems didn’t have a plan for this.
3d. Walker ‘won’ the debate, no one learned anything else
For the Walker campaign, they can claim victory in that the media framing of this has been treated as a balanced debate between two candidates. It was not.
Walker was not pressed by the moderators to define his positions, asked to stop rambling with his answers, or asked to stop speaking over or interrupting Senator Warnock. Minus the prop Sheriff badge, very little of Walker’s debate was held to the same standards. For conservative voters, Walker’s ‘aggressiveness’ + his hitting the main talking points of conservative voters was enough to convince them that he is the correct choice for US Senate heading into Monday.
4. Walker’s polling strategy
The beginning of the surge in Walker’s performance in the polls can be attributed to polling organizations Emerson and the conservative-backed Trafalgar’s polls. The pro-Walker sentiment has increased every day until the most recent revelations two weeks ago. But post-Friday’s debate, expect Walker to surpass or close the gap between Warnock, where it matters most, the ballot box.
Ever since late August’s polling results from Emerson, which were released ahead of a busy Labor Day weekend in Atlanta, a weekend that allowed for a larger pool of would-be Walker voters to talk about the candidate at likely weekend events and social settings. The release of the polling numbers also caught a shortened news cycle leading up to Labor Day and the following week. Since that point, Walker and conservatives throughout the US have used these polls to re-energize the base.
5. Walker has been running on GOP talking points and anti-black anecdotes, it’s a successful strategy
Walker throughout the campaign has run a Trump-like candidacy filled with the conservative talking points of the day alongside typical anti-black anecdotes. It’s a successful strategy. Prior to Walker’s most recent allegations, constantly spoke on the campaign trail about the prevailing myth of absentee black fathers. Once his own disclosures of being an absentee parent to several children emerged, Walker pivoted heavier into using evangelical talking points and soft-c conservative anecdotes. Evangelicals are still standing with him, as are general mainline conservatives.
5b. Successful Black GOP candidates reaffirm white-based stereotypes
White voters since Richard Nixon in 1968 have voted in the majority for Republican candidates in every presidential election as well as have been the majority political preference overall. White voters are also more likely to support Black candidates who support these anecdotes, stereotypes, and religious preferences—Black voters do not.
Black Republican candidates often (but not always) have to decide whether or not to venture into some aspect of adhering to the tropes of white respectability politics, presenting a non-ideologically threatening campaign. It works. What makes candidates like Walker successful is the appeal of their candidacies serves to placate the views of white conservatives. Post-racial rhetoric (ex: color-blindness and anti-black ideologies) alongside rugged individualism are the consistently most successful.
White voters don’t typically venture out of supporting a conservative or conservative presenting candidate (the exceptions being Clinton 1992/Obama 2008/Biden 2020). While lending on Black voters to support GOP candidates often relies ties to religious-based appeals on implied threats to religious issues, (see: George W. Bush in 2004).
5c. Black conservatism is ≠ white conservatism
White conservative politics throughout history has been at odds with Black political agendas. With rises in Black participation occuring only when threats to maintaining political power are threatened (See: Gerald Ford in 1952/1956, Nixon in 1968, Reagan in 1980/84, George W. Bush in 2004, Trump in 2020). This period often sees usually anti-Black voters supporting black candidates, increased in-party positioning, and efforts to expand the base by going after adjacent black audiences.
When speaking on conservatism, it must be noted Black conservatism has existed in the US for a long time. But most importantly, most Black conservatives are Democrats and have been so for decades. In the Black community being a Democrat is not equal ≠ to being liberal, but it does mean voting on behalf of the group over the individual. This is a common mistake that keeps coming up every 2-4 years, often leading to very awkward political misunderstandings of the most steadfast base of party supporters. This coalescing of Black voters into the Dems is a result of decades of political and societal issues leading to them becoming the party of Black America.
It also means those candidates/lawmakers who’ve ascribed to either veiled or implicit anti-Black biases or laws are not often eschewed as members of the community. These eschewed members are also not included in the decisions of the larger black voting bloc. Michael Steele and the late Colin Powell are/were two black Republicans, but also still respected members of the community. Clarence Thomas, Thomas Sowell, and Candace Owens, all Republicans, are not. And we’re not talking about Kanye.
For greater background, I would defer to two of my previous newsletter entries: Why do Black people vote for Democrats? - (A miniseries)
For more on the history of Black conservativism, Black political history, and ardent Democratic support please read these books by these Black scholars:
The Loneliness of the Black Republican by Dr. Leah Wright Rigueur
Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior by Ismail K. White and Chryl N. Laird
Insurrection by Hawa Allan
Black Political Thought: David Walker to Present by Dr. Sherrow O. Pinder
6. Herschel Walker has taken back split ticket Warnock/Kemp voters, maybe
Walker was in the debate to bring back split-ticket voters. A narrow margin for sure as Georgia is one of the most partisan state’s in the country. The narrow margin of voters is enough to secure a GOP sweep this election cycle. For the Dems, the biggest issue going into this election is to attempt to galvanize a fatigued base that has come out big since 2018 but is now growing deflated despite some of the wins of the party.
For the Dems, this could spell disaster as the 2020 elections and 2021 elections provided national recognition for Georgia going blue. Two years later the Dems are seemingly up the creek without a paddle. But unlike other states, Georgia’s Dem voters may be in the development of a new ‘silent majority’ in the state. One that’s less motivated by antics nor social media, more diverse, more centrist, and doesn’t poll well. The rise in new voters over the last decade + the closing of the gap in 2018, 2020, and 2021, reflect a new change in the electoral politics of Georgia of decades past.
Also for some evangelicals, independents, and Republicans, Walker’s track record with women, his children, as well as his own campaign may be a bridge too far to vote for him. Georgia went blue in three races by less than 50,000 votes, this race is still up for grabs, making turnout the only question left for each candidate starting Monday.
-KJW