A few thoughts on last week's mayoral election
The Update - 12/7/2021
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1. Dickens won, but he inherits a very slippery slope
One week ago, Andre Dickens became Atlanta’s 61st mayor. Dickens is a native of Atlana, Alanna…a graduate of Mays High School, with an undergrad from Georgia Tech, and a master’s degree from Georgia State. Dickens is the 7th consecutive Black mayor in Atlanta, extending the streak to over 48 years, the longest in US history for any major city. Dickens is the second consecutive city council member to go from council member to mayor.
Andre Dickens is the next mayor of Atlanta. But the Atlanta he inherits is much different than his predecessors. The Atlanta Dickens inherits is one that has been developing for 25 years now. Old Atlanta is gone, New Atlanta is here, and next Atlanta is right around the corner. The race featuring Atlanta City Councilman Andre Dickens versus current Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore should be seen as a turning point in the history of Atlanta politics. And where we go from here, matters more than where we currently are.
1b. The Dickens surge is one of the most surprising in Atlanta political history
I picked Andre Dickens to win back in May on The Mainline Podcast, this was prior to Kasim entering. Why I thought Andre Dickens could win, May 8th, (41:36-44:00) and on May 14th regarding the problem of candidate Felicia Moore (44:38-46:01). I think this is reflected in the runoff results.
In many ways, at least for this election, it still matters to have the support of Black Atlanta boosting you. And when I mean Black Atlanta, I really mean Black media, athletes, celebrities, entertainers, and local influencers. It’s a boost that can ward off even the most formidable challenges, see: Mary Norwood vs KLB in 2017. But to be on the outside looking in on this boosterism could be detrimental to a campaign in a runoff. It’s been the case for the last three runners but I’m not sure how much longer that could last.
Andre Dickens is the last Atlanta mayor since 1981, which saw a tight general race between Andrew Young and Sidney Marcus to pull over 50,000 votes in a mayoral runoff. In that runoff, Young pulled in 65,798 votes (2nd all-time) versus Sidney Marcus at 53,549 (4th all-time). And the first since Maynor Jackson in 1983 to pull over 50,000 votes in an election for mayor. Dickens now is 6th on the all-time totals in votes for mayor, behind Maynard Jackson at #1 -73,603 (1973), #3-54,375 (1977), and #5-55,811(1989).
1c. Felicia Moore ran a great campaign
Despite how it turned out Felicia Moore ran a great campaign. She started early, raise funds, met with small interest groups, found an identifiable problem, and campaigned on it. It wasn’t until the runoff that a series of small mistakes snowballed into an avalanche of negative press. Team Moore never had an adequate response.
1d. It’s better to be #2 if facing a runoff in Atlanta
In two of the last three runoff elections for Atlanta’s mayor, whoever came in as the #2 candidate eventually won, Kasim Reed in 2009 being the exception. Keshia Lance Bottoms in 2017, and now Andre Dickens in 2021. Due to the last three runoff elections being filled with several candidates, those in the position of #2-5 often have the most leverage going into a runoff. In all three of the runoffs since 2000, the #2 candidate in the runoff has seen their vote totals nearly double. As result, taking the mayoral position.
2) Atlanta’s demographic future
This year was the first time in 50 years that Atlanta was not majority Black. This increase is largely due to the last three waves of migration in Atlanta being the impetus of the ‘new’ Atlanta. And as a result, has seen a boom in new residents, including both in-region and in-state migration.
This is on top of a growing base of new residents from the Midwest and continued to pull from the Northeast. Resulting in the city’s overall population of 18% growth rate from 2010-19 according to census estimates. Not to mention an overall metro growth rate of 1-3% a year, every year.
2b. Black voters
The Black vote in Atlanta is declining. Despite being the Black Mecca, the turnout is anything but. The 2021 election will likely be the last election in which the Black population in the city of Atlanta is over or at 50%. The demographics show that Atlanta is no longer majority Black while also at the population at the highest it has ever been. This election produced another Black mayor, but the real question is after this election will this be the end? And more importantly, will it matter, if Andre Dickens doesn’t do anything to help or if he harms Black people in Atlanta?
2c. White voters
The White vote is rising a lot. The White population has been the biggest change in the city electorate since 2000. The rise in new White residents is in direct relationship to the rise in anti-homeless efforts of the 1990s and the mass removal of Atlanta’s public housing from 1996 to 2011.
Aided by the new commercial, residential, and office developments that have emerged over the 2010s to accommodate them. Which has allowed Atlanta to become the anchor of corporate relocations, the film industry, retaining more college grads, and a burgeoning tech scene. All segments of the economy have often had a larger percentage of white people who are participants. With the majority of these people being likely Democratic voters.
2d. Non-Black and Non-White voters
Asian Americans (4.4%), Latinx (4.3%), and biracial/multiracial voters (2.4%), are around 10%. (This exists because of overlapping cross-over of multi-racial and Hispanic/white voters). The Black population in 2021 is about 47% and declining. The white, non-Latinx total is about 38% and rising.
2e. The Democrats
For the Democratic Party of Georgia, metro Atlanta is an opportunity for growth. As the city of Atlanta, even Buckhead is still solidly blue. The city is no longer just the anchor for economic growth, it also is for statewide politics.
The influx of non-Black residents into the city of Atlanta has changed the demographics of the city, not necessarily the overall party. Atlanta is still about 70-90% Dem-leaning, but what type of Dem spans the entire gamut of the party’s affiliations. As a result, the Dems overall base of older, Black voters has expanded far beyond the confines of Fulton and DeKalb County.
The positive is that it flipped Georgia ‘blue’ in the 2020 and 2021 US Presidential and US Senate elections. On the negative, diluted the overall effectiveness of lobbying within the city for the direct needs of its largest base—Black Atlantans, who often did the most to advocate for better solutions to crime and poverty. The remaining local politicians are sometimes helpful or harmful depending on the district.
See my article: White Flight in Atlanta and The New Voting Power in Georgia
While the city of Atlanta is a bit in flux. The city showed up for Biden big this time last year, and at the same level for Ossoff/Warnock in January. But when it came to the citywide election, the turnout has been about half of that, in some cases worse. The profile of new Atlanta voters: ATLScoop, Bill White, and the Buckhead secessionists don’t care for ‘the Atlanta way’, Democrats, or Black politicians. Plus the number of low-profile conservative/libertarian candidates over the last year running for office should be an item to put a pin in, to address sooner than later.
3. The voter turnout of 2009 and 2017 needs a second inspection
The 2009 and 2017 elections were notable for a few things: 1) Mary Norwood, a White conservative Democrat, in the general had the highest number of votes both times, and 2) in the runoff she lost by only 1000 votes both times. Mary Norwood understood the assignment and almost won twice. A Buckhead resident like Norwood plus her staff spent a lot of time with would-be Black voters in varying parts of Atlanta. As well as correctly surveyed the new profile of Atlanta voters. Mary Norwood’s campaigns in both 2009 and 2017, are the framework for understanding the changes in Atlanta city politics.
3b. The 2009 Mayoral Election
Then-State Senator Kasim Reed won the plurality of voters in 2009 at 36,091 votes compared to fellow councilperson Mary Norwood’s 28,640, and third place Lisa Borders at 11,389 votes. The ensuing runoff produced a surge for Norwood of nearly 14,000 voters, compared to a little over 6,000 for Reed. Despite this, Reed won the mayorship. KR—42,549, Norwood—41,835.
3c. The 2017 Mayoral Election
While Reed’s 2013 campaign was a blowout, with Reed collecting 40,157 of the total 47,742 votes. The 2017 election saw a similar result with a whopping 11 people on the list, producing a turnout of 96,777 voters. In that first round, Mary Norwood again would secure enough second-place votes at 20,144 compared to then-city councilwoman KLB, who garnered 25,347. In that runoff, KLB saw a surge of 20,000+ voters compared to 25,000+ voters for Norwood. In a similar fashion, Norwood would lose by just over 700 votes. KLB—46,464, Norwood—45,705.
What’s notable about the 2017 election is that 3 of the top-4 candidates were not only White but varying aspects of the White community in Atlanta. What also could be noted is that the other traditional Black candidates all had lackluster performances. While much of that both Black and White could be attributed to a large number of candidates on the ballot it also showed the relative weakness in driving turnout. While the shift in voters over the last three mayoral elections shows that the old machine politics of Black Atlanta is also in flux going forward.
The Old Atlanta vs New Atlanta dynamic has changed
To be ‘Old Atlanta’ now is a term reserved in spirit only. Old Atlanta no longer lives in Atlanta. Old Atlanta moved or was pushed out to South Cobb, South DeKalb, or South Fulton. The percentage of native Atlantans is always a shifting goalpost. The last major one was in Atlanta prior to the 1996 Olympics, which shifted to Atlanta before 2011, the last year of public housing, but the next goal post will be the pandemic fallout.
Specifically, long-term Black Atlanta residents of 20 years or more, who know of Atlanta before ‘West Midtown’. This is the era of Black Hollywood, not The Black Mecca or even Atlanta as the music mecca. In all of these scenarios, due to population and voter turnout, the expectation of Black citizens and the cultural connections that emerged have long been gone.
4. Gentrification in Atlanta has finally crested over
In many ways gentrification in Atlanta was inevitable. A trifecta of anti-poverty efforts (ex: ending public housing, crackdowns on homelessness), plus waves of residential neighborhood changes, and very generous land deals are how we got here. It must be stated that gentrification in Atlanta has existed since the 1970s beginning with what is now affectionately known as Midtown.
Since the development of Midtown 1970s, it has expanded slowly, often in pockets of the city over the next twenty-ish years. But never reached a critical mass of concern until the one-two combination of 1), the 1996 Olympics and subsequent public housing teardowns, 2), the redevelopment of East Lake Meadows from 1993-1999. Followed by the period of eliminating public housing in Atlanta from 1996-2011. A period that also saw a rampant crackdown on homelessness including the shutdown of Peachtree and Pine.
The resulting drop in poor people, the adjacent properties surrounding their former living spaces, and a continuing influx of new people to the city have aided in the environment of economic development we see today. In the process bringing in a new voter, with a new expectation of city leadership, city services, and city lifestyle. Andre Dickens will have to contend with an Old Atlanta electorate that is dying off, being priced out, or is overwhelmed. And the New Atlanta voter is demanding that they (mayor/city council) not only meet their demands but also include Old Atlanta as well.
5. Buckhead and the business community will play a bigger role
Buckhead is going to play a bigger role in this election than it ever has since it was annexed into the city of Atlanta in 1952. And yep, the issue of race was a motivating factor in doing so! The looming part of the session is growing by the day. The problem for both Dickens and the newly elected city council will be how to govern for both Old Atlanta and New Atlanta, all while keeping Buckhead in the union.
5b. The biz community is bigger than Buckhead and will dictate much more
The Atlanta business community has been relatively not seen and not heard. Now because of threats of secession, the continued heightened perceptions of crime, and a new city council, they will likely have more sway than before. But, they will have to play this right as well. Due to the influx of newer businesses with deeper pockets and differing politics, the traditional business community can’t operate with the same modus operandi as before.
And the prospect of Buckhead secession being led by a stop the steal supporter, the business community was working with the city council, the new mayor, and Buckhead residents on a compelling message to stay in the union. Then they must repeat it over the cacophony of noise that will come from the well-capitalized cityhood effort and MAGA news adjacent media ecosystem. The biggest may be cityhood may give some corporations cold feet about moving to Atlanta.
6. Conservatives can win in Atlanta, they just can’t be Republican
Both Mary Norwood and Felicia Moore can run on a relatively conservative campaign and get close to winning it all in Atlanta. Atlanta has an appetite for some aspects of conservatism but it doesn’t have an appetite for Republicans, for now.
As long as the focus is on reducing crime, the local media ecosystem, and business boosters will allow for a police state—sorry activists. And with a growing base of white, non-Democrats in Atlanta, it’s a matter of not if, but when that becomes a reality. But if the Mayor and city council continue Atlanta’s pro-business, pro-development relationship as they have been since the Reed administration, it would be hard for a Republican to make a compelling case outside of crime.
6b. There are more MAGAs in Atlanta and they will bring the same toxicity to Atlanta, or move to Buckhead
Despite a rather uncomfortable association with Atlanta mayoral candidate Felicia Moore, the MAGAs are here in Atlanta politics. It’s not just Buckhead secession, Atlanta is losing the narrative on what the city is, specifically when it comes to safety.
The biggest has been Safer Atlanta, an initially anti-Kasim campaign that used a variety of political tactics: digital fear-mongering, online fundraising, text/phone banks, billboards, robocalls, and videos to attempt to persuade anyone but Kasim Reed. If you received a text, phone call, or a Facebook/IG post regarding the uptick in crime, you’ve likely gotten it from a MAGA-adjacent media agency. Or a good ole, campaign manager. Expect this to return.
6c. The anti-Kasim infrastructure is a dry run for the anti-Stacey/Warnock run in 2022
The anti-Kasim campaign of Safer Atlanta is likely a dry run for the 2022 elections. The all-Democrat city council will be in the crosshairs of a culture war that will run 24/7 on all platforms. The state GOP is running on culture wars for 2022, a lot of this strategy is about focusing on the ‘crime’ problem of Atlanta.
The GOP has the best team right now in Governor Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Rafesnperger, Attorney General Chris Carr, and US Senate hopeful Herschel Walker. Add in Buckhead secession + the national GOP manufacturing crisis after crisis, the Dems on a state level have to figure out how to win. Expect a barrage of attacks on Atlanta’s [Black] political leadership for handling crime. Expect a full-court press of appearances on Fox/OANN/Newsmax for Kemp & Co, with a secondary lap on WSB radio programs + local tv, and a final push from rightwing social media. Alongside a healthy amount of discrediting Stacey Abrams, using and manufacturing dissent amongst the same groups who voted for Biden in 2020.
7. What are the biggest issues?
Crime and Buckhead secession. While there are many other issues that are of equal (gentrification, affordable housing) or greater long-term importance (land use, economic development, fiscal solvency). It’s crime and Buckhead secession that is the defining issue of Dickens + the city council in 2022.
This will likely mean doing anything to appease Buckhead, which will likely see the expansion of police in Buckhead. Serious crackdowns on Black-owned bars, lounges, and nightclubs + accompanying foot patrols. It will have to take a show of force above and beyond, plus a compelling message on why Buckhead should stay. Considering Atlscoop, local television news, Fox News, plus the efforts of Bill White, Sam Lineaus & co, are running crime daily on all media platforms, Andre & co should do the same.
This is unfortunate given the events of the last 18 months, as the uptick in crime* has been at the expense of lax state-wide gun laws, the pandemic, alongside the police not policing, then being rewarded for it.
There are only 24 days left in 2021, make it count!